The liberalization of power prices - 'a key element of the electricity sector reforms that enticed investors to take on mandatory multibillion-dollar expansion programs' - is likely to be delayed by the government, after a number of oil companies complained that the measures were too much to deal with on top of the economic crisis.  A difficult week for BP - pipeline maker Transneft is threatening to take it to court over a dispute about extending a link for the Chevron-led Caspian Pipeline, and a minor fire has disrupted output at a TNK-BP deposit.  Spanish bank La Caixa has been in talks with Russia's Lukoil about the possible sale of its 14% stake in oil major Repsol.  The deadline for countries to extend their territories into the resource-rich Arctic seabed is set for May of next year, writes The Economist.

Over $146 million is currently owed in overdue wages to Russian employees, as the financial crisis makes its way into the real economy.  Inflation for 2008 has hit 12%.  Yesterday's surprise halting of the MICEX 'scared investors'.  A new deal with Cyprus could see the MICEX listing Cypriot companies.  As of last year, Cypriot FDI in Russia was at $49.6 billion.  A Russian unit of US-based Alcoa could be fined as much as 2% of its revenue by the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service for setting 'monopoly-high' aluminum prices.  A $4.6 billion bailout fund from the IMF means that Iceland is now attempting to secure just $500 million from Russia - $3.5 billion less than it had originally hoped for.  Norilsk Nickel wants the government to purchase a 25% blocking stake owned by Rusal, over fears that Russia could lose control of the company.  Two new Russian banks have been added to the nine that have lost their licenses since August. 

TODAY: United Russia congress; Georgia-Russia talks progress, Russia wants UN to monitor weapons trade; Poland seeking to allay tensions over missile defense; Bakhmina, Politkovskaya.

The United Russia party is holding its congress today, giving party leader Vladimir Putin a chance 'to re-assert his status as Russia's most popular politician'.  Putin has already been quoted as having pledged to spend an extra $1.8 billion on defense over the next two years, and to transfer $1 billion to the IMF to fund crisis rescue packages.

There appear to be some discrepancies over views on possible ruble devaluation and the rate of depletion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves.

From AP:

Russia's finance minister sought Wednesday to reassure investors and citizens that the economy will survive the global financial turmoil, saying Russia's rainy day fund will last for at least 7 years under the worst-case scenario.

That's what Yulia Latynina was suggesting in her column today.  Garry Kasparov also has a big interview with Reuters in which he (no surprise) not only predicts the rapid toppling of the regime within the next two years, but also hypothesizes that the economic crisis is making Vladimir Putin feel very insecure being outside of the Kremlin, and may lead to early elections:  "[He] is scared by the crisis and wants to go back to the Kremlin. (...) Now ... it's about saving your skin. That's why I believe they will soon move into a new election phase."

Interesting, no doubt, but these seem like mutually contradicting outcomes - Putin going back into the presidency is not something we would associate with a regime on the brink of collapse ... however there is also doubt over how much appetite there would be for the vulnerability presented by another transition.

A Medical Report for SPS

By Oleg Kozlovsky

On 15 November, Union of Right Forces (SPS), one of the two remaining democratic parties in Russia, was liquidated by its own members at an extraordinary convention in Moscow suburbs. This was, as openly admitted, a deal between the party's leadership and the Kremlin. Some of the former SPS members will now join a new puppet party Right Deed (Pravoe Delo) while dissenters will participate in creation of Solidarity opposition movement.

SPS was a very contradictive organization from the day one. It appeared not long before the 1999 parliamentary elections as a coalition of liberal (in European sense) and conservative movements and parties. The liberals included the oldest democratic party in Russia, Democratic Choice of Russia (DVR), led by ex-PM Yegor Gaidar, and Boris Nemtsov's Young Russia (Rossiya Molodaya) movement. Ironically, the name of Nemtsov's organization was later taken by a Kremlin-sponsored group of provocateurs. The conservatives were represented by another ex-PM Sergey Kirienko (now a member of Government) with his New Force (Novaya Sila) movement and by the father of Russian privatization Anatoly Chubais among others.

Below is an excerpt from an editorial published in the Boston Globe.  The New York Times also ran a piece, the petition can be signed here, and other blog material read here, here, and here (Pasko wrote his piece back on Jan.24, 2007).

Recently, the Bakhmina case took a new turn. In September, a former classmate of Bakhmina's posted an open letter to President Dmitry Medvedev asking him to pardon Bakhmina. Several days later, an Internet petition was launched. By late October, the petition had more than 60,000 signatures. On Oct. 30, in a rare media breakthrough, the case was discussed in the television debate show "K barieru!" ("Challenge to a Duel"), with writer Maria Arbatova facing off against veteran dissident Valeria Novodvorskaya.

From Yulia Latynina in the Moscow Times, a suggestion of a building scapegoat campaign:

In order to understand how the Russian economy was built, ask yourself one simple question: Is it possible to carry water in a colander? Yes -- if you are able to pour more water into the colander than the amount that leaks out of its holes.

For the past eight years, the Russian economy was like a huge colander. With oil prices above $100 per barrel, petrodollars flooded into the colander with amazing force. As long as oil prices remained high, it seemed as if the colander could actually hold water.

Belarus hopes that broader economic integration with Russia as of 2010 will help it secure the discounted rates it currently pays for natural gas.  The current massive debt problems faced by Russian electricity providers are reportedly due to to 'delinquent private and corporate customers' avoiding paying their bills.  The doubling of output at Su Tu Vang will boost Vietnam's national crude output by 25%.  An expansion of a major oilfield in Bahrain could see a doubling of the country's national output. 

The World Bank's 2009 outlook for Russia is 'grim', predicting further falls for the ruble and cutting the growth forecast in half, and Dmitry Medvedev has acknowledged that the crisis is starting to hit the real economy, as Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin tries to reassure investors on grounds that Russia's gold and currency reserves 'have laid a solid foundation for a stable macroeconomy'.  Trading on the MICEX was suspended this morning.  Russia cut its holdings in securities of US companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by $45 billion this year, state spending on the ruble has hit $58 billion, and the state's banking buyout is currently around $14 billion, with foreign exchange reserves running 'dangerously' low.